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M94A2313.TXT
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1994-10-25
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Document 2313
DOCN M94A2313
TI Prediction on HIV and AIDS incidence in Japan.
DT 9412
AU Kakehashi M; Anderson RM; Department of Public Health, Hiroshima
University School of; Medicine, Japan.
SO Int Conf AIDS. 1994 Aug 7-12;10(1):332 (abstract no. PC0261). Unique
Identifier : AIDSLINE ICA10/94370262
AB OBJECTIVE: To predict the numbers of AIDS cases and HIV infected persons
in Japan. METHODS: Back calculation for short term prediction and
mathematical modeling for long term prediction were performed. Annual
reported numbers up to 1992 in Japan formed the basis for prediction.
The data were pooled into homosexual and non homosexual (heterosexual,
here after) groups. In the back calculation we assumed parametric form
of HIV incidence trend. Confidence intervals were calculated by
bootstrap method. The mathematical model covers heterosexual
transmission involving pair formation and prostitutes. We carried out
computer simulation setting the parameters in plausible ranges. RESULTS:
1) The result of back calculation for heterosexual group is illustrated
in Fig. 1. The exponential trend seemed fit better to the observed HIV
incidence than the quadratic exponential one does. Neither trend fitted
in homosexual group. 2) According to the computer simulation, the steady
state will be attained after many decades. Exponential growth in earlier
stage seemed justified except for very early years. DISCUSSION AND
CONCLUSIONS: The number of heterosexual AIDS cases was predicted to
increase while the trend in homosexual cases was more difficult to
ascertain. Accumulation of observed data and adjustment for reporting
delay will increase precision of the prediction. TABULAR DATA, SEE
ABSTRACT VOLUME.
DE Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION Adult
Computer Simulation Confidence Intervals Female
Homosexuality/STATISTICS & NUMER DATA Human HIV
Infections/*EPIDEMIOLOGY/TRANSMISSION HIV Seroprevalence/*TRENDS
Japan/EPIDEMIOLOGY Male Models, Statistical Sex Behavior MEETING
ABSTRACT
SOURCE: National Library of Medicine. NOTICE: This material may be
protected by Copyright Law (Title 17, U.S.Code).